Miner Valuation Lab

Four layers: current company fundamentals, a future metal-price scenario, future operating assumptions (mining-cost inflation, production growth, dilution, balance-sheet adjustments), and valuation outputs (multiples, operating-margin proxy, implied future share price, nominal vs real returns).

• Future AISC = Current AISC × (1 + miningCostInflation)^years (unless manually overridden)
• Future production = Current production × (1 + growth)^years
• Future shares = Current shares × (1 + dilution)^years (unless overridden)
• Silver GEO = silverOz × silverPrice / goldPrice (scenario prices for future GEO; current prices for current GEO)
• Simplified gold margin / oz = Future gold price − Future AISC
• Operating Margin Proxy = Σ production × margin (before taxes, growth capex, financing, royalties, and corporate costs — not FCF)
• Enterprise value = Market cap − cash + debt
• Future equity ≈ Future EV − future debt + future cash; implied share price = Future equity / Future shares
• Real value = Nominal / (1 + generalInflation)^years; CAGR = (Future / Current)^(1/years) − 1

Grey Rabbit Miner Valuation is Grey Rabbit methodology. It was reconciled against simplified future-cash-flow reference research for validation — it is not branded as a third-party named method.

• Operating Margin: Models future operating economics from production, metal prices, and AISC, then applies the configured valuation multiple (default 8×). Formula: Production × (Metal Price − AISC) × Multiple → modeled EV, then cash/debt/shares bridge to implied share price. Bear/Base/Bull scenarios do not change the 8× default.
• EV / Production: Values the company relative to modeled production.
• EV / Reserves: Values the company relative to proven and probable reserves.
• Blended: Combines the three independent approaches at fixed weights — 40% EV / Production, 40% Operating Margin, 20% EV / Reserves. If any component is unavailable, Blended stays unavailable (weights are not redistributed).

Blended valuation combines multiple valuation lenses to reduce dependence on any single metric. Current Grey Rabbit weights are 40% EV/Production, 40% Operating Margin, and 20% EV/Reserves.

• EV/Production rewards production scale but does not directly account for operating costs.
• Operating Margin introduces metal-price and cost sensitivity but remains a simplified proxy rather than free cash flow.
• EV/Reserves provides asset-base context but does not account for mine economics, development timelines, or jurisdictional differences.

These weights are model assumptions and may be refined as historical validation expands. They are not a universally accepted industry standard and have not been statistically optimized.

Bear, Base, Bull, and Custom adjust metal prices, production growth, cost inflation, dilution, and horizon. Custom lets you edit supported assumptions; Reset restores Base. Company data (production, AISC, reserves, balance sheet) remains distinct from user scenario assumptions.

Operator-style valuation is not applicable to royalty/streaming companies (for example WPM, FNV, RGLD). Grey Rabbit will require a separate royalty methodology; that work is not part of the operator Mining 50 valuation surface.

Company fundamentals, guidance, reserves, balance-sheet data, and market prices often have different as-of dates. The lab shows Fundamentals through, Market data through, Reserves through, and Balance sheet through separately. Each Model Basis row retains its own source and period — inputs are not forced onto one artificial date.

Mining-cost inflation compounds producer costs (AISC). General inflation is used only to express future nominal results in today's dollars and to compute real upside / real CAGR. CPI is never treated as a substitute for mining-cost inflation.

Nominal outputs are future-dollar estimates under the scenario. Real outputs discount those values by general inflation so they can be compared with today's share price in today's dollars.

Optional controls can populate scenario metal prices from verified Grey Rabbit gold or silver targets. Horizon mismatches versus the selected valuation year are warned, not silently ignored. Scenario presets themselves remain illustrative assumptions — not Grey Rabbit forecasts.

• Simplified model — does not replace mine-by-mine DCF
• Taxes may be excluded
• Royalties may be excluded
• Permitting risk is not fully modeled
• Jurisdiction risk is not automatically quantified
• Grade and recovery changes may be omitted
• Capex assumptions may be simplified
• Mergers and acquisitions are not modeled
• Reserve revisions are not guaranteed
• Many fundamentals start as manual or illustrative inputs until lawful sourced data is available

Fundamentals and balance-sheet figures are primarily filing-backed snapshots (and curated operating disclosures), not continuously live feeds. Market-cap status reflects quote provenance: snapshot market caps are labeled Recent / Stale snapshot — not Live — unless a verified live quote is wired. Share prices in Valuation Lab follow market-data freshness bands (live / delayed / previous close / stale / unavailable).

Compare Miners evaluates 2–6 companies under one shared scenario so differences reflect company fundamentals rather than different macro assumptions. It reuses the same valuation engine as Miner Valuation Lab — there is no second methodology and no overall Grey Rabbit Miner Score.

• Same-scenario comparison: identical gold, silver, mining-cost inflation, CPI, growth, dilution, horizon, and valuation method for every selected miner.
• GEO normalization for polymetallic miners uses the active shared-scenario metal prices (silver ounces × silver price / gold price), not a static conversion ratio.
• Real vs nominal: nominal outcomes are in future dollars; real outcomes discount by general inflation. Real CAGR is a primary comparison metric.
• Data-period differences are preserved per company (Model Basis). Coverage and freshness labels are not Grey Rabbit Confidence.
• Blended valuation reuses the Lab weights (40% EV/Production, 40% Operating Margin, 20% EV/Reserves). Blocked miners show Unavailable and do not invent comparison values.

Miner Valuation Lab provides scenario-based analytical estimates using user-defined and sourced assumptions. Results are illustrative and are not investment advice or guaranteed valuations. See the site disclaimer.