Grey Rabbit Confidence

What it measures

Alignment confidence reflects cross-timeframe agreement on directional structure. It is computed separately from the directional score.

Why it matters

Higher confidence means greater agreement across the Monthly (40%), Weekly (35%), and Daily (25%) Ichimoku inputs. Lower confidence warns that timeframes disagree.

How to interpret

Read confidence alongside the directional score. A bullish directional score with low confidence means bullish bias exists, but timeframe agreement is weak.

Methodology summary

Multi-timeframe Ichimoku weighting: Monthly 40%, Weekly 35%, Daily 25%. Alignment confidence ranges from 25–100% when all timeframes are available; unavailable inputs return null.

Scale

Range: 25 to 100 %

• Very High (90–100%)

  All three timeframes share direction with strong Ichimoku confirmation.

• High (80–89%)

  All three timeframes share direction; strength may vary across timeframes.

• Moderate (60–79%)

  Monthly and Weekly agree; Daily may be neutral or partially offsetting.

• Low (25–59%)

  Timeframe disagreement or broadly neutral structure reduces alignment confidence.

This is not

• • Probability that price will rise
• • Probability a forecast will be correct
• • Expected return
• • Certainty of outcome

Limitations

• • Confidence measures alignment, not probability of price rising or falling.
• • Confidence is not expected return, forecast accuracy, or trade certainty.
• • Any unavailable timeframe blocks confidence calculation entirely.
• • Manual admin overrides recalculate confidence but are never manually entered.

Related

• Directional Score →
• Trend Phase →