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Market Cycle
Current phase
Expansion
Confidence
69%
Methodology GREY-RABBIT-MARKET-CYCLE-1.0 · Updated 7/16/2026, 8:12:18 PM
Market psychology curve
Current phase
Expansion
Confidence 69%
Expansion
Broad institutional participation with orderly psychology.
Mapped from Institutional Bull — constructive technicals/futures with psychology below speculation extremes.
Evidence
Adaptive synthesis for Gold — only modules with verified data are shown.
Overall score 61 sits in the Institutional Bull range. Baseline stage from overall score 61 Macro · macro is the strongest supportive driver. Technical · trend is the main restraint.
Module contributions
Labels reflect verified module readings. Unavailable modules are hidden — not filled with neutral placeholders.
Trend Analysis
Technical Intelligence 36/100 (Bearish) from Momentum.
Soft
Score 36 · live
COT Positioning
Positioning neutral (56/100). Crowding: low. MM: long bias.
Neutral
Score 56 · delayed
Physical Markets
Physical score 85/100 (Tight) from 10 verified metrics.
Tight
Score 85 · delayed
Forecast Center
Forecast Intelligence composite from 15 verified records
Positive
Score 73 · delayed
Macro
Macro environment neutral for Gold (58/100).
Constructive
Score 58 · delayed
Confidence (69%) measures certainty in the phase estimate from module count, freshness, and agreement — not bullishness.
Phase characteristics
Mapped from Institutional Bull — constructive technicals/futures with psychology below speculation extremes.
Related research
Gold is currently in Institutional Bull. The most likely advancing path is toward Momentum if technical would need to strengthen and psychology would need to improve. The likely deteriorating path is toward Early Bull if technical weakness is already a deterioration risk.
Macro · macro
Macro score 58
Forecasts · forecast consensus
Bullish share 93%
Forecasts · forecast revisions
Revision upgrade bias 40
Forecasts · forecast dispersion
Dispersion component 88
Forecasts · forecast accuracy
5 consensus snapshot(s)
Technical · trend
Technical score 36
Technical · momentum
Momentum 36
Technical · technical
Technical Intelligence 36/100 (Bearish) from Momentum.
No transitions recorded yet.