Market Cycles/GDX

Market Cycle

GDX

Current phase

Expansion

Module agreement

78%

Methodology GREY-RABBIT-MARKET-CYCLE-1.0 · Updated 10/12/2026, 12:45:12 AM

Market psychology curve

Where is this market in its cycle?

Current phase

Expansion

Module agreement 78%

Expansion

Broad institutional participation with orderly psychology.

Mapped from Institutional Bull — constructive technicals/futures with psychology below speculation extremes.

Evidence

Why this phase

Adaptive synthesis for GDX — only modules with verified data are shown.

Trend Analysis
Psychology

Overall score 58 sits in the Institutional Bull range. Baseline stage from overall score 58 Sector Breadth · mining50 breadth is the strongest supportive driver. Technical · trend is the main restraint.

Physical Markets does not apply to GDX.

Module contributions

What is feeding the estimate

Labels reflect verified module readings. Unavailable modules are hidden — not filled with neutral placeholders.

Trend Analysis
Technical Intelligence 36/100 (Bearish) from Trend, Momentum.
Soft
Score 36 · delayed
Psychology
Psychology 39/100 (Fear) from social, narrative-crowding. Sentiment skews defensive with elevated risk-off tone. Directional sentiment and crowding risk are reported separately.
Soft
Score 39 · delayed

Module agreement (78%) reflects module completeness, freshness, and cross-module agreement — not a calibrated probability.

Phase characteristics

What Expansion usually looks like

Typical psychology: Confidence without frenzy.
Institutional behavior: Systematic allocation and trend following.
Retail behavior: Rising interest but not yet dominant.
Typical volatility: Healthy trend volatility.
Typical technicals: Higher highs/lows; supportive moving-average structure.
Historical examples: Sustained institutional advances in equities and metals.
Common risks: Complacency; ignoring early divergence.

Mapped from Institutional Bull — constructive technicals/futures with psychology below speculation extremes.

Related research

Explore contributing modules

What could move the cycle next

Gold is currently in Institutional Bull. The most likely advancing path is toward Momentum if technical would need to strengthen and psychology would need to improve. The likely deteriorating path is toward Early Bull if technical weakness is already a deterioration risk.

Top bullish drivers

Sector Breadth · mining50 breadth
MINING50-BREADTH-1.0
+8.4
Sector Breadth · MINING50 BREADTH 1.0
Cohort: goldFocused
+8.4

Top bearish drivers

Technical · trend
Technical score 36
-1.6
Technical · momentum
Trend 31
-1.6
Technical · technical
Momentum 46
-1.6
Psychology · psychology
Psychology score 39
-0.9
Psychology · bandwagon
Includes Bandwagon / Trends / Social inputs via psychology pillar
-0.9

Score history

8/31/20268/31/2026

Phase history

Unavailable— · 8/31/2026

Transitions

No transitions recorded yet.

Why this phase

Adaptive synthesis for GDX — only modules with verified data are shown.

Trend Analysis

Psychology

Physical Markets does not apply to GDX.

What is feeding the estimate

Labels reflect verified module readings. Unavailable modules are hidden — not filled with neutral placeholders.

Trend Analysis

Technical Intelligence 36/100 (Bearish) from Trend, Momentum.

Soft

Score 36 · delayed

Psychology

Psychology 39/100 (Fear) from social, narrative-crowding. Sentiment skews defensive with elevated risk-off tone. Directional sentiment and crowding risk are reported separately.

Soft

Score 39 · delayed

Module agreement (78%) reflects module completeness, freshness, and cross-module agreement — not a calibrated probability.

What Expansion usually looks like

Typical psychology

Confidence without frenzy.

Institutional behavior

Systematic allocation and trend following.

Retail behavior

Rising interest but not yet dominant.

Typical volatility

Healthy trend volatility.

Typical technicals

Higher highs/lows; supportive moving-average structure.

Historical examples

Sustained institutional advances in equities and metals.

Common risks

Complacency; ignoring early divergence.

Mapped from Institutional Bull — constructive technicals/futures with psychology below speculation extremes.